By Franklin Otorofani

In the ears of the cynic, the title of this piece might sound like a doomsday prophecy. In the ears of the wise, however, it just might be the much needed wake-up call to national action. While potentially unnerving at first brush, it’s a warning meant to steer the nation from the path of a looming catastrophe—an economic storm which outer bands are already buffeting the nation’s shorelines. As the saying goes, to be forewarned is to be forearmed. But this would not be the first time such warning would be given. The question then is, why is nobody in position of power listening, and if listening, do something concrete about it beyond lip service? Why is the gospel of economic diversification so hard to believe, accepted and incorporated into national/ regional economic planning? If anybody was listening, there wouldn’t be need for this warning in the first place. Nobody cared and the moment of truth is suddenly upon the nation with the government caught flat-footed. Borrowing from abroad to finance the budget is lame, and does not portray the Nigerian government as serious at all. 

Nigeria is being turned into a beggarly nation once again after quitting the debtors club about two decades ago. Sad. How does that square up with its economic status on the continent? It’s no secret that with its massive landmass that dwarfs its neighbors, and approximately 200 million strong in population which makes one in every four Africans a Nigerian, in addition to boasting the largest economy in Africa, only the incurably cynical would seriously deny that Nigeria is indeed a regional powerhouse of sorts; demographically and economically, even militarily, in Africa. Thus in recognition of its preeminent status and role in the continent and beyond, the African continent, specifically through ECOWAS, AU, and yes even the UN too, have had to lean heavily on Nigeria on both regional and global peacekeeping missions where the Nigerian military had received tons of accolades and laurels for its stellar performances and effectiveness in getting the job done and making the nation proud. When the chips are down anywhere in the African continent, the whole world turns to Nigeria to engage gear and get things under control, much the same way the whole world looks up to the United States whenever there is crisis anywhere in the globe, thanks to the Nigerian military. Regrettably, the Nigerian military is not respected at home unlike its counterpart in the United States that is adored and worshipped for no other reason than it playing its assigned traditional role of defending the nation and engaging in foreign wars as demanded by its meddlesome civilian commanders-in-chief of both parties. 

Never mind that this same celebrated military whose heroes are left unsung for the most part, has been humbled by a rag tag terrorist group—Boko Haram—riding in beat-up pick-up trucks rather than armored vehicles, in its home turf due largely, it must be quickly underlined, to the clueless and ineffective civilian administration of President Goodluck Jonathan, which by his own confession, was late to the game on national security. He failed to remember that national security is duty number one of the president and commander-in-chief of the nation before anything else, which was a costly error of judgment for which he was appropriately punished by the Nigerian electorate in-spite of his good works in other areas. With that said, Nigeria’s economic and military power, to the extent that it exists, is not founded on her scientific and technological prowess or anything of the sort. Nor can it be credited to the entrepreneurial acumen of its business class. On the contrary, it is almost entirely based on oil and gas much of which it is tragically flaring away as waste product rather than utilized for domestic and industrial applications. As the sixth largest oil producing nation by some estimates, and a major in OPEC, Nigeria’s economic and social infrastructures sit on oil and gas. 

Pull the plug on oil and gas anytime and the entire national edifice would come crashing down like a house of cards. This is scary enough for any sensible nation to quickly develop and implement a Plan B in case of such eventuality. Think about this for a moment: the United States though an oil producing nation in its own right has national oil reserves which it replenishes when oil prices are low. It could dip into the reserves when oil prices are high and crash them. That is proactive thinking and planning for the rainy day when things go sour. Not so the Nigerian government. Not so the presidency whose head and limbs are busy living in a fool’s paradise. Not so the National and state assemblies whose members are drunk with power and petro-dollars, spending like drunken sailors. Not so the petty monarchs in state executive mansions wasting government funds on entertainments, false contracts, outright thievery and scandalous frivolities as if oil and gas are inexhaustible assets that will flow forever like the mighty Niger River. And you wonder why the nation has a ministry of national planning. 

Ditto for local government chairs and councilors, whose false lifestyles give them away as rotten pinheads with no brains. While they are able to plan for the future in their individual private/family lives, they have no concept of tomorrow when it comes to the collective because “government business is nobody’s business.” So elections are supposed to mean nothing but empty rituals, in their demented minds. People line up in the scorching sun or rain to cast their votes for nothing, but just so that nobody would care for their welfare, but line their own pockets at the expense of the people. If that’s the case, who needs government/democracy? 

Officially, it would appear that they live only for today probably due to the seemingly endless flow of petro-dollars, believing that tomorrow will always take care of itself as long as the oil flows. Right? I have bad news for them and the Nigerian nation. Contrary to their wishful thinking and disposition, tomorrow does not take care of itself. On the contrary, tomorrow is taken care of by today. It’s called planning. It’s called foresight. It’s called investing in our future. It’s as good for a nation as it is for individuals and groups. Those who fail to plan for the future will lose it because the future is for those who take care of it presently. And it’s a no brainer. Therefore, a situation where a nation with such a massive population would rely on only one product for everything under the sun amid the presence of other bountiful natural resources (mineral and agricultural) besides oil and gas for over 50 years borders on insanity and gross criminal negligence. It is tragic that the leadership of such a nation would turn those blessings into curses in their hands, and go abroad cap-in-hand begging for loans and development aids from less endowed nations which have maximized their human and material potentials. 

The other day someone sent me video of a black pastor with American accent delivering a sermon in which he declared un-apologetically that the black man is utterly incapable of leadership and development. “Something is wrong somewhere,” he declared, citing the bleak situations in one African nation after another, and ending up with Harlem in New York City, the so-called black capital of the United States which is riddled with gangs, crime, drugs, murder, poverty and hopelessness in the midst of plenty. Yes, right in the citadel of capitalism. While political correctness in the US would not permit most people to openly voice such views, there is no question that something is definitely wrong somewhere, and I have had occasions in the past to say so categorically too. 

One only has to look at what a black president has been doing in office for the past seven to eight years in the United States today to realize that something is definitely wrong somewhere. Absolute tragedy of leadership, for crying out loud! African-Americans are in a far worse shape than he met them, as testified to by official government unemployment figures and poverty rates amongst the racial groups in the United States. They say charity begins at home rather than abroad. African-Americans didn’t pour out in droves to vote their son in just so they could remain at the bottom of the pond in perpetuity as if suffering is an eternal curse for them in America. If a black leader could not use the enormous power, influence and prestige of the US presidency to better the lives of his own people, much less those of other country men and women, but goes off the bend on a flight of fancy and a journey to nowhere, it is finished. But guess what, the same black people would vote for him a third time if he were to run again for the US presidency. 

Which again is part of the tragedy of the black race that it does not know who is looking out for it. Wasn’t not Obama, a black man, who went to Africa to depose an African leader in Libya who had made peace with the West and dismantled his nuclear weapon? Did any white leader in the United States do that even when Gaddafi was blowing up American planes in the air? The most was President Ronald Reagan bombing his compound. Obama killed his own blood and he is beating his chest for doing it but dared not touch Bashir Assad of Syria the so-called butcher, who is far worse than Gaddafi. Russia barked and Obama backed off, turned tail like an intimidated cowardly dog fleeing from a fight. But Gaddafi, a fellow African, was murdered in cold blood only for Obama to turn Libya over to ISIS and other Islamic jihadists. And you say something is not wrong somewhere? Hell yes it is! Gaddafi’s vengeful spirit is abroad tormenting Libya and the West. 

Now, coming back home, it is perhaps fair to state that only in Africa would the citizens of a nation blessed with oil and gas, (black gold) be cooking their meals with firewood in makeshift huts in rural areas and answer nature’s calls in pit latrines; drink polluted water from dug up wells, suffer blackouts year in year out, and worse still, queue up for days on end and fight for gasoline to power their automobiles. Nowhere else in the entire world is this permitted to happen by the leadership, whether civilian or military governments. Not even in countries like Jordan and Egypt, for example, with no crude oil ruled by monarchy and military dictatorships, would permit such atrocious aberrations that economically endanger the welfare of their citizenries. Something is definitely wrong. 

If Nigeria is unable to husband her oil and gas resources, as has been the case in the past 50 years, the chances are next to zero that it would be able to develop alternative resources to supplement or even displace oil and gas as drivers of the economy. And there doesn’t appear to be any difference between military and civilian administrations in this. They’re all bankrupt of development ideas and national planning. Oil shouldn’t be taking 70-80% of the nation’s GDP for 50 years to date. I, as an individual, know better than to rely simply on my salary alone to make ends meet. I know enough to diversify my income sources to take care of business. It’s unacceptable. In other words, Nigeria will stand or fall with oil and gas. Which brings us to the crux of the matter: Oil and gas are wasting assets and their days are numbered even in the best of times and even if all things are equal. 

The bad news, however, is that these are not the best of times and all things are not equal. For one thing, the global oil market is at a saturation point presently and oil price at the international markets has seen better days, to put it mildly. The present downward spiral in oil crude prices will accelerate even further with the lifting of sanctions against Iran, a major oil producer that had been kept out of the oil market with sanctions for decades. Together with Saudi Arabia, a barrel of oil will cost less than a bottle of water when it’s all said and done. How so, you ask? Here is why: Saudi Arabia is presently in a cold war with Iran, which could turn into a hot war in no time. And Saudi Arabia, is to a large extent, responsible for the present oil glut in the international market. Unlike before, it has refused to cut back in production and instead flooded the market to drive down oil prices. 

Some analysts are of the opinion that the Saudis are doing this deliberately to spite the Iranians and drive their economy to the ground since Iran too, just like Nigeria, depends very much on oil exports for its economic wellbeing, sanctions or no sanctions. Others are speculating that the Saudis are doing this in order to kill off oil fracking in the United States which has taken off big time, making the US a major oil exporter. However, it’s more expensive to produce than traditional methods of oil extraction and production. Therefore, by flooding the markets with crude oil and making profits impossible for the US fracking industry, which is already the case, the theory goes, the Saudis are killing off the fracking industry competition to OPEC. There is evidence of this already in the US where several oil wells are being shut-down, and the fracking industry itself is now on the verge of bankruptcy with layoffs and the likes. Everything is frozen for the time in the US fracking industry due to low oil prices which cannot sustain it due to THE high cost of production. 

Whatever the Saudi motives are, it is bad news for Nigeria, and it couldn’t have come at worse time when Iran is unleashed on the global oil market. As long as Nigeria is unable to wean itself off oil, so long will the nation continue to suffer from the vagaries of international oil markets and energy politics. It is a shame that the fate of 200 million citizens would hang in the balance of international oil politics. The consequences of shortsighted national economic planning are now mightily upon the nation, making nonsense of national budgetary projections; driving the nation once again into the warm but morbid embrace of the creditors’ club; mortgaging future generations, and condemning the generality of the citizenry to further pauperization and hopelessness. As an optimist, I don’t enjoy the business of doomsday prophesy, but suffice it to state that there’re harder, bitter days ahead of us if the Nigerian leadership goes about it with business as usual attitude with regards to the mono-culture structure of the Nigerian economy. Economic diversification should not be an empty slogan but cardinal national objective with concrete and actionable implementation timelines.

Calamitous as they might seem, however, these are only the beginning of Nigeria’s impending economic Armageddon. Let me be blunt here: oil not so much gas, will cease to be the primary source of energy for the global community in the not too distant future. As both East and West aggressively pursue alternative and renewable energy sources, the oil dividends will continue to dwindle in inverse proportion to the progress of the alternative energy sources. Now, it is true that there is resistance to the anti-fossil fuel conspiracy in the West aimed at defanging OPEC and other oil producing nations, but don’t count on the resistance succeeding in the end. When liberals set their sights on something they never relent until it is attained. Think nationalized healthcare system. Think same sex marriage sentimentally styled “marriage equality.” Think gender equality. Think removal of capital punishment. Think wealth redistribution through higher taxes, and you will understand. And heck, think social promotion where students are moved from one grade to another whether they pass their promotion tests or not. They never give up even if it takes a thousand years to achieve their goals, and in this case it is darn close. That is the character of liberalism. It is a religion. 

After using oil to develop its economies, the West will attack it now as some evil rather than the blessing it had been for its own economies. Heck liberals are already blaming last week’s snow storm that blanketed nearly half of the US on climate change as if there had never been snow storms before in history when in fact, it is an annual affair in winter. It’s a demonization process which is carefully calculated to attain their diabolical end. Mind you, liberalism is not an ideology, but the religion of the political left. It worships God’s creatures like man, animals, plants, and the earth, for example, rather than God the Creator Himself. As such, it is pursued with religious passion, fervor and devotion, whether or not the devotees profess Christianity. It makes no difference to them at all. Those who live in Western liberal democracies would testify to the fact that liberals hardly mention God, Christ, or Christianity publicly even if they claim to be Christians themselves. Phonies. God, Christianity, and religion are their enemies. Trust the West to impose renewable energy regime on the world through some UN vote. It is clear, therefore, that western liberals who have declared war on fossil fuel now pose existential threat to OPEC nations of which Nigeria is a prominent member/state. 

Oh, it already happened through the agreements reached recently at the Paris summit on so-called climate change. Remember, the singular goal of the climate change conspirators in the liberal West is to kill and bury fossil fuel. And therein lies the economic perils that await Nigeria and other oil producing nations. It won’t be long for the chickens to come home to roost. The reported assurance by Vice President Yemi Osibanjo that “Nigeria can weather lower oil prices,” while necessary to allay public fears is, without more, beside the point. Diversification should be the immediate goal of the government, not short term palliatives just to address the present crisis and go back to business as usual till the next crisis hits. That the Buhari administration has gone to seek $3.5bn loan from the IMF as recently reported, owing to dwindling oil revenue receipts, should serve as wakeup call. 

The dark economic clouds are already gathering. There’s nothing in the horizon to alter this cataclysmic trajectory. And that could very well pose a veritable existential problem for Africa’s regional political and economic powerhouse unless there is course correction now because if Nigeria goes down, all will be lost. If there is one single African country that could pull Africa up by the bootstraps or down, Nigeria is it, whether Nigerians realize it or not. Alternatively, it could force Nigeria’s myopic leadership back to the drawing board and build a truly diverse, strong multi-cultural, as opposed to the present fragile mono-cultural economy that wilts at the sneeze of global oil politics.

Franklin Otorofani is a Nigerian-trained Attorney resident in the United States. 

Contact: mudiagaone@yahoo.com